The chief executives of Qantas and Iberia believe British Airways must choose one of them as its merger partner.
Publicly, Willie Walsh, BA chief executive, begs to differ as he tries to keep both sets of negotiations on track.
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“This is not an ‘either/or’ deal. When we announced our talks with Iberia, we said that we didn’t see it as the end game, and that any structure would have to be capable of expanding to deal with further consolidation,” he told BA staff.
Last week, Fernando Conte, Iberia chief executive, said it would become “too complex” to pursue both deals, however. And on Monday, Alan Joyce, Qantas chief executive, sided with Mr Conte and ruled out a three-way deal.
“BA and Iberia and us are all conscious that only one of the transactions can take place,” he said.
As executives from the three carriers wrestle with the details of the complex corporate structures needed for either deal to pass muster with regulators and politicians, analysts are trying to establish which deal might be more beneficial for BA to pursue.
“The benefits are less obvious to us [from a BA/Qantas deal] than from a BA/Iberia combination,” said Andrew Lobbenberg, aviation analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland. “BA and Qantas already have a joint venture on UK-Australia operations.”
Andrew Fitchie, aviation analyst at Collins Stewart, estimated the BA/Iberia merger could yield about £400m of combined cost savings. “Given the geographical remoteness of Qantas and its relative efficiency, it is unlikely that synergies would be as great, but could comfortably be in the range of £100m to £200m.”
Mr Lobbenberg said if BA and Qantas were to combine, Europe-Australia services would be wholly integrated, and the carriers could also support one another on Europe-Asia and Asia-Australia services.
Long-haul aircraft utilisation for the planes operating the “Kangaroo” routes could be improved, as the aircraft had long turn times.
Sales and marketing support would help the carriers gain in Asian markets that are served from both Europe and Australia, such as China and Japan. And sales, marketing and airport services could be centralised in Australia, Europe and in overlapping Asian markets.
On the costs side, there would also be procurement benefits in areas such as fuel, aircraft and airport handling services. Both carriers have ordered the Airbus A380 and the Boeing 787.
In spite of these benefits, Mr Lobbenberg remained sceptical about the advantage of the Qantas deal over Iberia. “The network thesis of this [BA/Qantas] combination is less obvious than a BA/Iberia, BA/American Airlines or even a potential BA/Cathay Pacific combination.”
A BA/Iberia deal offers the chance of channelling more passengers across the Spanish flag carrier’s hub in Madrid to Latin America. Iberia is the leader in the Europe/Latin America market, where BA is weak, while the positions are reversed on the North Atlantic, where BA leads the European pack.
Madrid Barajas airport, recently expanded from two to four runways, would provide BA with growth opportunities that are still denied to it at its own global hub at London Heathrow, where it faces interminable wrangling over the building of a third runway, which would not be in operation until 2020 at the earliest.
A merger with Iberia also offers BA the only realistic chance of significantly expanding its presence in Europe. It has slipped to a distant third behind Air France-KLM and Lufthansa among European airlines as its rivals have pushed ahead in the consolidation game.
Air France-KLM brought two of the big four European hubs, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Amsterdam Schiphol, into a common network, while Lufthansa is busy vacuuming up weaker carriers in neighbouring markets. Austrian Airlines is about to follow Swiss, Brussels Airlines and BMI British Midland into the German group’s grasp.
In Australia, some analysts are also sceptical about the gains Qantas would make from a tie-up with BA rather than first pursuing regional consolidation.
Philip Wensley, Morgan Stanley analyst in Sydney, said: “What perplexes us is why Qantas is considering a British Airways tie-up, when it would likely have more synergies with Singapore Airlines.” A BA deal carried risks including the UK airline’s pension fund deficit, which is also proving a problem in talks with Iberia.
Roger Maynard, BA director of alliances and investments, told BA staff, however, that each deal had its own merits and they were complementary to each other. “This is about creating a global business,” said Mr Maynard. “Neither deal is mutually exclusive.”